Abstract

This study aims to examine the factors that influence gold prices in India and proposes a forecasting model for predicting future trends in gold pricing. Several variables affecting gold prices in the Indian market are identified. Multiple regression and the Coefficient of Determination (R²) are used to understand the impact of exchange rates, inflation rates, crude oil prices and interest rates on gold prices. The dataset was transformed to ensure stationarity, and lag values were examined using Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots. Forecasting accuracy was evaluated using MAPE, BIC, MAE and R². The study concludes that the ARIMA model provides the most accurate forecasts for gold prices.